Week 17 NFL Picks - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) at New Orleans Saints
Saturday, January 01, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Weather:
This game is being played in a dome.
Last week’s result:
Tampa Bay (-6.5) beats visiting Seattle 38-15. New Orleans (+2.5) beats host Atlanta 17-14.
Last week against the Spread:
Tampa Bay covers; New Orleans upsets.
Analysis:
The New Orleans Saints kept their hopes alive of clinching the NFC South last week with a 17-14 win over the Falcons, keeping them within one game of the lead heading in to their season finale against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints and Falcons are a combined 11-3 at home this year, and that is plenty of motivation to clinch home-field advantage.
New Orleans will be playing a Buccaneers’ team that has taken advantage of a relatively weak schedule to climb to 9-6, but one that will need a victory and some help in their season finale in order to clinch one of the two NFC Wild Card spots.
Tampa Bay has actually been better on the road (5-2) than they’ve been at home (4-4) this season, and after a big win over the Seattle Seahawks last week they do have a chance against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Buccaneers have actually gotten better as the season has gone on with the confidence that comes with winning games, particularly on offense where their seventh-ranked rushing attack has led the way.
Tampa Bay has averaged 127.8 yards per game on the ground this season, in big part due to rookie sensation LaGarrette Blount. Blount leads the team with 941 yards and six touchdowns this season, including the 164 yards he ran for in a 38-15 win over the Seahawks.
The Buccaneers are ranked sixth in the league against the pass, but a big part of that is opponents choosing to run the ball against one of the worst defenses at stopping the rush. New Orleans favors the pass, and their running game may not be strong enough to move the ball with consistency.
New Orleans pummeled the Buccaneers the first time these teams met with a 31-6 victory at Raymond James Stadium, and with a possible first round bye and home field advantage on the line, there is no reason to think that they won’t do it again.
The Saints have won seven of their last eight and their lone loss to a division opponent came against the Falcons after kicker John Carney missed a wide-open chip shot that would have sealed the game. New Orleans will stack the box to slow down Blount, and there isn’t much beyond that for the Tampa Bay offense. Quarterback Drew Brees seems to play his best in the biggest games, which could mean trouble for the league’s 28th-ranked pass defense.
Although the Saints did get tripped up by Tampa Bay last December at the Superdome, they had little problem dismantling the young Bucs earlier this year at Tampa. The Buccaneers have shown some fight and some growth since then. But they're a banged-up team that will have a hard time slowing down the Saints' potent offense, especially inside the Superdome. Unless Tampa Bay can set the pace with its run game like it did last year, this game could get out of hand. The Saints will dominate but will let the Buccaneers score late to keep this game within a score. Take points and Buccaneers.
Bet on Tampa Bay (+7.5) at New Orleans at Bovada Sportsbook
Related Articles
- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
- NFL Betting Pick: New Orleans Saints Visit Surging Tennessee Titans
- Perennial Standout Saints To Build Distance From Division Foe Buccaneers
- NFL Football Week 6 Picks - Can Vikings and Saints Bounce Back?
- NFL Pick: Thunderous New Orleans Saints Travel To San Francisco 49ers
Category
Tags
drew brees - john carney - lagarrette blount - new orleans saints - raymond james stadium - super bowl - superdome - tampa bay buccaneers
