NFL Picks: Miserable Season Ends For Tampa Bay Buccaneers In Atlanta
Saturday, December 31, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
The rallying cry after the Atlanta Falcons were hammered by the New Orleans Saints last week was they wanted a rematch. That may just be what’s ahead for Atlanta, which backed into the playoffs a week ago and hosts Tampa Bay in what could be a meaningless regular-season finale on Sunday. Currently the No. 6 seed, the Falcons’ ultimate playoff seeding will be decided by other teams – with a matchup against either New Orleans or the Giants-Cowboys winner in the offing.
Unless San Francisco loses, New Orleans is locked into the No. 3 seed and a matchup with the sixth seed. As for Tampa Bay, the trendy preseason choice, the Buccaneers have limped to the finish and coach Raheem Morris’ job appears in major peril as a result.
Atlanta had won two straight and four of five games before suffering a 45-16 loss to passing monster Drew Brees and the Saints at the Superdome, a game in which the New Orleans quarterback broke the NFL's single-season passing mark previously held by Dolphins Hall of Famer Dan Marino. That wasn't a good sign for a Falcons team that allowed nearly 500 yards of offense (463) to the Saints just weeks away from entering the playoffs as a Wild Card team, but head coach Mike Smith put a realistic spin on the situation.
The Falcons' opponent in the postseason's first round is unknown, though they can't afford to lay down for the Buccaneers after losing the first meeting with their NFC South rivals back on Sept. 25, before Tampa Bay underwent an implosion. In an ugly performance for both teams, the Falcons dropped a 16-13 decision at Raymond James Stadium that day, with Atlanta's running game virtually extinct and quarterback Matt Ryan passing for 330 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Falcons' signal-caller was sacked four times in the contest, but was able to rally his team for four wins over the next five games after that loss.
Tampa Bay's destiny has already been decided, and a season-worst nine-game losing streak and ineffective results from quarterback Josh Freeman are to blame. The team is riding its longest slide since opening the 1985 campaign with an 0-9 mark en route to a lowly 2-14 finish and hasn't dropped 10 in a row in the same season since losing the first 12 games of the 1977 schedule before a 2-12 ending.
As a result, Morris could be in jeopardy of losing his job at season's end. The Buccaneers' downfall hasn't been totally his fault, since Freeman has regressed from his 2010 performance by throwing 14 touchdown passes and 19 interceptions so far this season. He had 25 touchdown passes to just six picks a year ago.
It remains to be seen if management wants to go a different route for 2012, but Morris seems to have established the trust from his players and staff.
The Bucs, who hope to prove that this season was just an aberration, have been blown out for much of the losing streak, and last Saturday's defeat to the Panthers was the seventh game in which they allowed 30 or more points in 2011.
Tampa Bay is a young team that's still learning the ropes, which makes last year's 10-6 mark looking like it could have been smoke and mirrors. The team hopes to end a six-game losing streak on the road as well on Sunday.
Tampa Bay owns a 19-17 edge in its all-time series with Atlanta and snapped a string of five straight losses to the Falcons with the previously-noted win at Raymond James Stadium back in September. The Buccaneers have left with a defeat in three consecutive visits to the Georgia Dome, however, with the most recent being a 27-21 setback last season. Tampa Bay hasn't recorded a victory in Atlanta since a 31-7 rout in 2007, also the year of the Bucs' last season sweep of the Falcons.
Mike Smith is 5-2 against the Bucs as a head coach, while Morris earned his first win in five career encounters with both Smith and the Falcons with that Week 3 result.
Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, January 1, 2012. Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
Last Week's results:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) loses to host Carolina Panthers 48-16.
- Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) loses to host New Orleans Saints 45-16.
Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) loses and does not cover
- Underdog Atlanta Falcons (9-6) loses and does not cover.
NFL Football Odds: Falcons -11.5, O/U 45.5
Playoff Picture:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Eliminated (week 14)
- Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have clinched a wild-card spot. They can move into the fifth seed with a win and a DET loss. COMMENT: It's looking more and more like the Falcons will be playing the Saints for a third time this season -- and second in three weeks -- in the first round of the playoffs.
Quarterback Josh Freeman scored his team's lone touchdown as Tampa Bay snapped a five-game losing skid against the Falcons with a 16-13 home victory earlier in the season. But that was in Week 3 and since then things have completely spiraled out of control for the Bucs.
They’ve lost nine straight games, and even Morris said his team lacked any focus last week in a 48-16 thrashing against Carolina. Cornerback Ronde Barber will set the team record for games played on Sunday but it appears that it could be his last with the franchise, which has allowed the most points in the NFL and has scored 20 points only once in the last nine outings. The Bucs are also 1-6 on the road and certainly looking forward to the offseason.
The Falcons rushed for only 30 yards in the September setback against the Bucs. They figure to do much better this time. Atlanta has won seven of its last 10 games to reach the playoffs for its second straight season. Last week, the Falcons gave up four touchdown drives of 80 or more yards, atypical for the NFL’s 12th-ranked defense.
It’s hard to say how hard the Falcons will go in this game or how long the starters will play. Atlanta is the No. 6 seed and can move to the No. 5 spot only if Detroit loses at Green Bay. That game is scheduled for 1 p.m. so Atlanta will know if its contest has any bearing on the playoff matchups by kickoff time.
The Buccaneers haven't swept a season series from Atlanta since the 2007 campaign, but have the offensive firepower to do so. Even though they're 4-11 on the season, they don't lack talent on both sides of the football. Things just haven't worked in Tampa's favor this year after a 10-win season in 2010. Bucs tight end Kellen Winslow could make a difference and has caught a pass in 91 consecutive games. He leads the team with 68 catches and could give Atlanta linebackers Curtis Lofton and Sean Weatherspoon trouble on Sunday.
Falcons rookie wideout Julio Jones is even more threatening as Winslow and owns six touchdown receptions this season, including four in the last three games. He has also hauled in a touchdown pass in three consecutive games while racking up 317 yards on 16 receptions in that same span. Jones caught six passes for 115 yards in the first meeting with Tampa Bay, and will be a player the Bucs must key on in the rematch.
It will be a battle of bulky running backs on Sunday, with Michael Turner and LeGarrette Blount carrying the offensive load for their teams. Both players haven't performed that well in the last few weeks, but each could set the tone for their respective clubs on New Year's Day. Turner may not see a ton of action, however, since the Falcons are playoff-bound.
Ryan threw for 330 yards in the team's first matchup. Josh Freeman threw for 180 yards and two interceptions.
Roddy White needs four catches for 100 on the season.
Bucs star cornerback Aqib Talib was placed on injured reserve 10 days ago.
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Practice makes perfect, right? The Falcons have to believe that Sunday's game against the Buccaneers will be the final preparation for the "second season", or they may have all sorts of problems trying to straighten their act out before the playoffs commence the following week.
After getting its gong rung by the mallet that was Brees and the Saints, Atlanta has to come out swinging versus the Bucs despite the fact the game may mean nothing to both teams. Tampa Bay, of course, is hoping to save the job of Morris and put to rest an elongated losing streak that has dashed their postseason hopes. That streak will sadly continue into the 2012 season (although the spread is too high) however, and continue to raise questions if Morris is suited to continue as coach.
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NFL Football Pick: Take points and Buccaneers.
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Tags
aqib talib - atlanta falcons - carolina panthers - curtis lofton - drew brees - georgia dome - josh freeman - julio jones - kellen winslow - legarrette blount
